[MD-sorular] 3 kutudan olusan olasilik hesabi suali?

[rusdeme zale]

su an okudugum bi kitaptaki ihtimal hesabi bana pek uygun gelmedi:
kitap Inevitable Illusions
How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds
by Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini
John Wiley & Sons (c) 1996
256 pages

paragrapg da burda.
3 kutu var, 1'ini seciyosunuz. sunucu bos bi kutuyu aciyo.
kararinizi yani sectiginiz kutuyu degistirmeli misiniz?
bence ihtimal 1/3 idi ilk basta, ama su an bir kutuda olmadigini a
posteriori biliyoz. demek ki sans 1/2.
2/3'deki olasilik'in tamamen acilmayan oteki kutuya tasinmasi sacma.

simdiden tesekkurler.
------------------------------------

Consider, the so-called "Monty Hall" puzzle. Money is inside one of three
boxes on a table.
Monty Hall, the host of a game show, offers you the chance to select a box.
Clearly, you
have a one in three chance of picking the right box. When you point to a
box, Monty Hall
smiles and opens one of the other two boxes. You see that it is empty. He
then offers you a
chance to change your choice, or to stay with it. Should you change your
selection or not?
Most people seem to think, intuitively and instinctively, that they now have
a 50/50
chance of having chosen the right box. In that case, they should be
indifferent about
switching or not. But, in fact, an analysis of probability shows that there
is still only a onethird
chance that their original choice is correct (the same probability as when
there were
three boxes), and there is a two-thirds probability that the money is in the
remaining box.
In this scenario, always switch. Your chosen box has a one out of three
probability of
holding the money. The two remaining boxes, jointly, have a two out of three
probability.
However, once the moderator reveals an empty box, the second box – by itself
– then has
a two-thirds chance. "Switching increases the probability from one-third to
two-thirds.
This runs totally contrary to our intuition, but is rationally absolutely
right."
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