[MD-sorular] 3 kutudan olusan olasilik hesabi suali?

Fatih Kursad CANSU fatihcansu at gmail.com
25 Haz 2008 Çar 16:57:42 EEST


Su anda vizyonda olan bir film var 21 mit de matematik bölümünde okuyan 3
öğrenci ve hocalarının lasvegas maceralarını anlatıyor. Filmin bir yerindede
hoca sınıfa bu soruyu yöneltiyor. haliyle cevap kutuyu değiştirmek oluyor.
Öyle ya olasılık yukseliyor ve sizin kazanma şansınız artıyor.

2008/6/25 Kerem Altun <kerem.altun at gmail.com>:

> Ali Nesin'in bu konuda bir yazisi var. Asagidaki baglantidan
> indirebilirsiniz.
>
>
> http://www.alinesin.org/popular_math/O_0_4_dunyanin_en_zeki_insani_matematikcilere_karsi.doc
>
> Kerem
>
>
>
> 2008/6/25 rusdeme zale <rusdemezale at gmail.com>:
>
>> su an okudugum bi kitaptaki ihtimal hesabi bana pek uygun gelmedi:
>> kitap Inevitable Illusions
>> How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds
>> by Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini
>> John Wiley & Sons (c) 1996
>> 256 pages
>>
>> paragrapg da burda.
>> 3 kutu var, 1'ini seciyosunuz. sunucu bos bi kutuyu aciyo.
>> kararinizi yani sectiginiz kutuyu degistirmeli misiniz?
>> bence ihtimal 1/3 idi ilk basta, ama su an bir kutuda olmadigini a
>> posteriori biliyoz. demek ki sans 1/2.
>> 2/3'deki olasilik'in tamamen acilmayan oteki kutuya tasinmasi sacma.
>>
>> simdiden tesekkurler.
>> ------------------------------------
>>
>> Consider, the so-called "Monty Hall" puzzle. Money is inside one of three
>> boxes on a table.
>> Monty Hall, the host of a game show, offers you the chance to select a
>> box. Clearly, you
>> have a one in three chance of picking the right box. When you point to a
>> box, Monty Hall
>> smiles and opens one of the other two boxes. You see that it is empty. He
>> then offers you a
>> chance to change your choice, or to stay with it. Should you change your
>> selection or not?
>> Most people seem to think, intuitively and instinctively, that they now
>> have a 50/50
>> chance of having chosen the right box. In that case, they should be
>> indifferent about
>> switching or not. But, in fact, an analysis of probability shows that
>> there is still only a onethird
>> chance that their original choice is correct (the same probability as when
>> there were
>> three boxes), and there is a two-thirds probability that the money is in
>> the remaining box.
>> In this scenario, always switch. Your chosen box has a one out of three
>> probability of
>> holding the money. The two remaining boxes, jointly, have a two out of
>> three probability.
>> However, once the moderator reveals an empty box, the second box – by
>> itself – then has
>> a two-thirds chance. "Switching increases the probability from one-third
>> to two-thirds.
>> This runs totally contrary to our intuition, but is rationally absolutely
>> right."
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
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-- 
Fatih Kürsad CANSU
Kendi Halinde Bir YaÅŸam Formu
"His boyhood lasted one sixth of his life; his beard grew after
one twelfth more; he married after one seventh more; his
son was born five years later; the son lived to half his father's
age, and the father died four years after his son. How old was
Diophantus when he died?"
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