[MD-sorular] 3 kutudan olusan olasilik hesabi suali?

[Kerem Altun]

Ali Nesin'in bu konuda bir yazisi var. Asagidaki baglantidan
indirebilirsiniz.

http://www.alinesin.org/popular_math/O_0_4_dunyanin_en_zeki_insani_matematikcilere_karsi.doc

Kerem



2008/6/25 rusdeme zale <rusdemezale at gmail.com>:

> su an okudugum bi kitaptaki ihtimal hesabi bana pek uygun gelmedi:
> kitap Inevitable Illusions
> How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds
> by Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini
> John Wiley & Sons (c) 1996
> 256 pages
>
> paragrapg da burda.
> 3 kutu var, 1'ini seciyosunuz. sunucu bos bi kutuyu aciyo.
> kararinizi yani sectiginiz kutuyu degistirmeli misiniz?
> bence ihtimal 1/3 idi ilk basta, ama su an bir kutuda olmadigini a
> posteriori biliyoz. demek ki sans 1/2.
> 2/3'deki olasilik'in tamamen acilmayan oteki kutuya tasinmasi sacma.
>
> simdiden tesekkurler.
> ------------------------------------
>
> Consider, the so-called "Monty Hall" puzzle. Money is inside one of three
> boxes on a table.
> Monty Hall, the host of a game show, offers you the chance to select a box.
> Clearly, you
> have a one in three chance of picking the right box. When you point to a
> box, Monty Hall
> smiles and opens one of the other two boxes. You see that it is empty. He
> then offers you a
> chance to change your choice, or to stay with it. Should you change your
> selection or not?
> Most people seem to think, intuitively and instinctively, that they now
> have a 50/50
> chance of having chosen the right box. In that case, they should be
> indifferent about
> switching or not. But, in fact, an analysis of probability shows that there
> is still only a onethird
> chance that their original choice is correct (the same probability as when
> there were
> three boxes), and there is a two-thirds probability that the money is in
> the remaining box.
> In this scenario, always switch. Your chosen box has a one out of three
> probability of
> holding the money. The two remaining boxes, jointly, have a two out of
> three probability.
> However, once the moderator reveals an empty box, the second box – by
> itself – then has
> a two-thirds chance. "Switching increases the probability from one-third to
> two-thirds.
> This runs totally contrary to our intuition, but is rationally absolutely
> right."
>
>
>
>
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